What is happening in Ukraine?
How did we get here and will Russia invade?
If you haven’t heard, Russia has troops at the border of Ukraine. In response, the U.S. is prepping its troops for possible deployment, and NATO deployed jet fighters and ships to areas around Ukraine. But how did we get here, and are we going to war with Russia?
Europe’s Response
Ukraine is on the border of Russia, and was a part of the USSR before its collapse in 1991. Ukraine has been independent for decades, but Putin wants more influence over surrounding countries, especially those that were once USSR. There’s been conflict between Russia and Ukraine ever since Russia annexed Crimea, a part of Ukraine, in 2014. Now, Russia appears ready to take all of Ukraine as they have stationed over 130,000 troops at the border of Ukraine. Although Russia has said this is just training exercises, it is clear to the rest of the world that this is not the case. According to American officials, Russia has 70% of the force needed to invade Ukraine already at the border. In response the the U.S. warning that Russia could invade, Russia has responded by saying the U.S. is trying to push them closer to war.
President Biden and leaders in Europe have warned that an invasion would have consequences. U.S. and German officials have warned that, if Russia invades Ukraine, the $11 billion Nord Stream 2 pipeline project will not continue. The Nord Stream 2 pipeline would carry natural gasses from Germany to Russia, an alternative to the current main natural gas pipeline that runs through Ukraine, who charges Russia fees for this.
China and Russia
Russia’s relationships with European countries may be souring, but they still need allies. President Xi Jinping hadn’t left China in two years and had his meetings virtually until a couple weeks ago when he met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in person in Beijing. After their meeting, they released a lengthy joint statement cementing their new friendship and unity against the west. Furthermore, China sided with Russia in their fight to get NATO to back off.
“Russia and China stand against attempts by external forces to undermine security and stability in their common adjacent regions.”
These two countries have a lot in common. They run powerful autocratic countries and, according to The Washington Post, are trying to “make the world safe for dictatorship.” Also, Russia’s situation with Ukraine is very similar to China’s situation with Taiwan. Although the countries have competed for influence over Asia in the past, they will be each other’s most important (and similar) ally as Russia’s conflict with Ukraine continues.
So what will happen
Russia continues to deny that they will invade Ukraine (or even are possibly preparing to), but the U.S. has said that Russia is ready and could invade soon. Furthermore, the U.S. recently said Russia brought 7000 more troops in, which Russia has denied. No one knows what is going to happen, but I personally doubt that Russia will launch a full on invasion towards Ukraine. Although Ukraine is not a part of NATO, it appears that, if an invasion were to happen, NATO would defend Ukraine. Russia knows that an invasion would come with consequences not probably worth invading Ukraine. More likely than a full on invasion, Russia might continue to run “training exercises” and hold a relationship with Ukraine similar to China and Taiwan’s: always looming, but playing the long game. If Russia played ‘the short game,’ the western powers would back Ukraine and China might back Russia, but this would all be a lot of violence for a invasion that might not work. If Russia were to play the long game and slowly inch closer, they might be able to eventually be able to call Ukraine a part of Russia. Everyday, Hong Kong becomes less independent and Taiwan inches closer to being under the rule of Xi Jinping and mainland China. Still, I have no idea what’s going to happen, and I only hope that the world doesn’t descend into complete chaos. It is important to remember that war isn’t a board game. It involves real people with real lives and the very real ability to die. This conflict is happening across the ocean and miles away, so it’s easy to forget that this is very real for a lot of people. Even halfway across the globe, we are all still only human.